The scaling up of e-fuels production has started, and with it, the technological advances that aim to reduce upstream emissions and bring costs down.

We are on the brink of industrialised production of e-fuels, says Ralf Diemer, Managing Director of the eFuel Alliance. “The technology is there. It’s doable. It’s feasible, but now the big investments have to be made.” The eFuel Alliance is an interest group committed to promoting political and social acceptance of e-fuels and to securing their regulatory approval. It represents over 170 companies along the value chain of e-fuels.

Diemer expects to see a lot more production globally at least by 2025. Regulation in the EU and the US, even Australia, is creating the right environment, but the big projects need offtakers to trigger FID. e-fuel refineries have the advantage that, like their fossil fuel equivalent, their production systems can be flexible, shift from one use case to another to meet changing demand, he says.

“Cost effectiveness will come through scale effects,” says Diemer. “It’s difficult to predict exactly when, but our members believe that around 2030-35, we will be able to produce e-fuels at costs comparable to fossil fuels – not cheaper, perhaps just slightly more expensive. CO2 neutrality comes with a price tag.”